Ancient pathogens escaping the melting permafrost (permafrost) have the potential to survive in modern microbial communities, but they also manage to become the dominant species, sometimes killing modern varieties. Its impact on the future is unpredictable, and it is this unpredictability that scientists are most worried about.
To arrive at these findings, the scientists conducted intensely detailed computational simulations involving the introduction of a digital virus-like pathogen from the past along with other bacteria-like hosts into a digital Petri dish. They then left the experiment to itself and studied what came out.
“We use artificial life simulations,” said Giovanni Strona, lead author of the study, from the European Commission Joint Research Center and the University of Helsinki. You have these digital organisms that are like computer programs competing for resources. They behave like bacteria, although they are quite intangible. “They use resources to grow, compete, reproduce, and similarly interact with the environment,” he said.
In addition to having the advantage of not involving real microbes, the simulations allow researchers to repeat simulations over and over while fine-tuning many different variables.
The simulations say ancient invading pathogens can often survive and evolve in modern microbial communities, and even that stands out as a pretty impressive discovery. It also showed that ancient bacteria can be very successful within modern groups. In about three percent of cases, ancient pathogens overtook modern-day bacteria to become the dominant strain. In other cases, it actually increased its microbial diversity. In one percent of cases, invaders produced unpredictable results, most worryingly.
“While an invader with ‘proper’ traits may fail, some invaders that seem unlikely to succeed can actually be very successful and very bad for the community,” said Strona. ”
They come out from under the glaciers and they’re free
As global temperatures continue to rise steadily, the reawakening of microbes that have been dormant for thousands of years in glaciers and frozen soil is a very real possibility.
While the biggest concern is the possibility that these ancient pathogens could infect humans and cause a new epidemic, the new research highlights a much more subtle but just as dangerous threat.
The reintroduction of these ancient microbes into long-standing environments is changing an important balance that has perhaps been stable for thousands of years. Like the butterfly effect, the reemergence of a tiny microorganism can have profound effects on the wider ecosystem.
“Even if net diversity stays the same or increases, it’s not good to deconstruct ecological communities,” says Strona. It could trigger cascading effects that could collapse ecosystems or lead to further extinctions.”
This can directly affect people. Like all living things, we are inextricably intertwined with the trillions of microorganisms living inside and around us. Adding new unwanted assets to this balance can upset long-standing balances, increasing the risk of disease and disaster.
The study was published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology.
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