As Bitcoin becomes a major crypto asset in the global financial system, how it reacts to major economic and political events is closely watched. US presidential elections also have a critical place among these events. What happened in the past elections indicates that a new upward trend may occur in the Bitcoin price after the upcoming elections. According to James Van Straten’s analysis, no matter who wins the US presidential elections, it is possible for the Bitcoin price to make a historic rise. This analysis predicts that the Bitcoin price could exceed $100,000 in the post-election period.
US elections, bullish sign for Bitcoin price
Bitcoin will experience its fourth presidential election cycle in the US since its launch in 2009. Looking at the previous three election periods, there was a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin in each post-election period. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin is expected to gain value in the upcoming post-election period. Let’s take a look at the price movements in previous election periods:
- 2012 Elections: In November 2012, the year of the US presidential election, the price of Bitcoin was around $11. In November 2013, a year after the election, the price reached $1,100, an increase of almost 12,000%.
- 2016 Elections: Four years later, in November 2016, Bitcoin was trading at around $700. At the end of 2017, the price rose to $18,000. The price increase during this period was around 3,600%.
- 2020 Elections: After the elections held in November 2020, Bitcoin started to rise due to the impact of the pandemic, and the price rose to approximately $69,000 at the end of 2021. The increase rate in this period was 478%.
Is there a possibility of growth in BTC?
The fact that Bitcoin rises to a higher level after each election period is an important data that shapes market expectations. However, looking at the past elections until now, decreases in the percentage of Bitcoin’s earnings are also observed. There was a 70% decrease in the increase rate between the first and second elections, and an 87% decrease in the increase rate between the second and third elections. If this trend continues, Bitcoin can be expected to gain approximately 47.8% in value after the 2024 elections. This means that Bitcoin could reach $103,500 in the last quarter of 2025.
According to analysis, Bitcoin is currently at a significantly lower value compared to previous cycles. In particular, the price drop during the FTX crash in November 2022 and the halving of miner rewards in April are the main factors explaining this situation. Currently, Bitcoin is only up 7% post-halving, which is a very poor performance compared to past cycles. In this context, the theory of diminishing returns comes to the fore once again.
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