Veteran crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says a strong capitulation may be required for Bitcoin before traders start talking about a bull reversal.
Analyst marks bottoms for Bitcoin!
Benjamin Cowen says he previously predicted a capitulation to fuel the next leg of Bitcoin’s bull run, but never really got what he was looking for. With BTC falling below the $40,000 level for the third time, the analyst is now looking at what a potential capitulation might look like.
The analyst points to three of the most important long-term moving averages keeping BTC in support on its ten-year growth trajectory, noting that a drop below the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) has historically been the primary opportunity for bulls:
One of these realistic scenarios would be to look at some long-term moving averages that we’ve held as support in the past. You have 200 weeks… You also have 300 weeks and then you have 100 weeks. So you’re looking at these three fields as a kind of value field. The 100-week SMA is currently around $36,000, so what you’ll notice if you isolate the 100-week moving average is that once we’re below 100 weeks, that period is the best time to buy Bitcoin as it enters the new bull market.
Analyst says the 100-week moving average will be the next mainline in the sand for Bitcoin, while if the momentum picks up BTC is now around to test the next major level at the 200-week moving average. He says it could go even lower. This means a 40% reduction from the current price. The analyst explains:
Beneath this, you obviously have a date with destiny. This level is the 200-week moving average. It’s currently $21,600, so if Bitcoin goes to $21,600, you’re talking about another 40% drop. You have to remember this, don’t just say things like ‘can’t be’, it’s happened before. I was a Bitcoin buyer at $6,000 and saw it drop to $3,000. I was a Bitcoin buyer at $7,000 and $10,000 and still watched it drop to $3,800. So don’t let people tell you this can’t happen. As for the 300-week moving average
, Bitcoin only briefly touched it once during the Covid-induced market crash of March 2020, as we reported on Cryptokoin.com. The analyst says he does not expect this to happen, but BTC’s 300-week moving average is currently located around $21,400.
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