Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in the shadow of a new geopolitical conflict – what are the main obstacles investors are facing? In a macro environment that has become unrecognizable compared to a few days ago, Bitcoin feels pressure like many other assets. So, what could affect cryptocurrencies this week? As Kriptokoin.com, we are giving the details…
Ukraine war, dominating the markets
It goes without saying that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the main driving force of the market performance this week. The situation, which emerged in its current form only five days ago, is in constant flux – sanctions keep coming, both sides and their allies continue to kneel, markets react to new threats and possibilities. Chief among these is the Russian economy, which is preparing for turmoil on Monday. Equity trading has been pushed back, and forecasts are bleak for the currency ruble, which is already trading at record lows.
Negotiations are scheduled to start on Monday and any spark of hope could trigger a turnaround in the short-term outlook and thus change the market situation. However, while uncertainty rules, everyone is looking for the ultimate safe haven. The Ukrainian military has already raised millions of dollars in crypto aid, and wide-ranging sanctions against Moscow may yet facilitate a return to Bitcoin as an economic tool, according to experts. Ukraine’s vice president, Mykhailo Fedorov, urged exchanges to block funds from Russian and Belarusian users. Meanwhile, the eyes of the markets seem to be on the meeting between Ukraine and Russia.
Spot price action faces macros
Predicting how Bitcoin will move on the shortest timeframes is a real problem, as traditional markets are ready to be extremely volatile in their Monday open. Correlations aside, Bitcoin has managed to stay in a pretty tight range so far, with $40,000 being a clear resistance zone for the bulls to beat. “Bitcoin, down 4 percent from Friday, marks a tough week for risk assets,” warned Mike McGlone, chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
By the way, the popular Twitter account Decodejar has updated the current levels for the last 15 months. He noted that it represents the so-called checkpoint and has seen large volumes of $38,000 relative to other price points in the current range. “When it comes to Bitcoin, the playing field looks pretty simple,” said more hopeful analyst Michaël van de Poppe. He thinks that he can go to 44,000 dollars in the process when 38 thousand dollars are kept.
Another month, another red candle seen
Sunday’s close did not go according to plan for Bitcoin market watchers. The last-minute dive eliminated any chance of closing the week and the month above $38,500, thus giving the history books their first four-month red candles since the 2018 bear market. The events of the past week, currently an unexpected drop, seem to be making things worse for Bitcoin users, who have yet to see the cryptocurrency stand alone as a standalone from traditional assets. The monthly chart relative to its 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) is also causing a headache for analysts.
According to Analyst Kevin Svenson, a monthly close below $37,000 gives the same bearish signal as previous macro downtrends. Bitcoin had previously failed to retrace two key moving averages as an excuse to retrace higher resistance levels near all-time highs from November. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a benchmark few would question as support, crossed $20,000 for the first time this weekend.
Network fundamentals positive
Investors moving away from geopolitics have every reason to believe in the power of the Bitcoin network. Despite price pressures and uncertainty in almost every timeframe, miners continue to mine. In addition, the hash rate and mining difficulty continue to climb. This week may see a challenge to the status quo – the hashrate is stable, but the difficulty is down for the first time in 12 weeks. According to monitoring resource MiningPoolStats, the hash rate remains above 200 exahash per second.
Bitcoin investors are nervous
The market is rapidly becoming more tense, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, an emotion indicator that is gaining increasing attention in 2022 . BTC/USD saw a relatively minor drop through Monday, but that was still enough to push the Index back into the “extreme fear” zone – it fell from 26/100 on Sunday to 20/100.
Will the Swiss city make the Bitcoin move?
There is talk about whether Lugano, one of the largest cities in Switzerland, will become a Bitcoin city. Tether executive Paolo Ardoino and the mayor of Lugano will make a statement on March 3.
FED Chairman will speak this week, US non-farm employment data is coming
Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will make congressional speeches this week. Powell will speak in the House of Representatives on Wednesday evening and the Senate on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Fed’s interest rate hike continues to affect the markets. Meanwhile, data on nonfarm payrolls will follow in the US on Friday.
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