A popular analyst outlines a bullish scenario for leading crypto Bitcoin. However, he mentions some obstacles that BTC is likely to face. Meanwhile, market intelligence platform Glassnode explains the reasons for the latest pullback.
DonAlt bases his analysis on a historical approach
As you follow from Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin saw a sharp decline after rising above 44 thousand dollars. However, it found support at $40 thousand and reached up to $42 thousand again. The analyst, nicknamed DonAlt, predicts that Bitcoin will rise more than 45% from its current value, based on historical price patterns. However, he warns that BTC will see a correction soon. In this context, the analyst makes the following statement:
If you compare the consolidation we experienced in 2018 and the subsequent bear market with this one this 2021, they are strikingly similar so far. You’ve made a big leap. You had a large bearish candle from the all-time high for both 2018 and 2021. There was a two-month consolidation here in 2018. Three months of consolidation here in 2021, followed by another nuke. So it’s pretty similar. And then this rises in 2023 similar to what it did in 2019. But much slower. 2019 was straight up. BTC broke resistance and we haven’t been able to break it here so far in 2023 but we are trading above it.
Source: DonAltA rollercoaster ride for Bitcoin
The analyst points to the possible approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. He predicts this will cause a rally to the $60,000 level before a sell-off. Then, a pullback to $35,000 is expected. However, next, he predicts that Bitcoin will make a massive rally to over $60,000. The analyst explains this rollercoaster journey as follows:
If you’re going to be bullish on this, you might say: Hey, we still have 20 days before this quarter closes. If this rises towards resistance like $60,000, perhaps we will have a repeat of 2019… I think the ETF will have a news sell-off event and the ETF will come in January. So if the FOMO people push it higher, the best resistance we have is $60,000. And then it would make sense for it to be down for a few months to half a year, a little bit longer. That would basically mean $60,000 and then $35,000. And then upwards.
Why did Bitcoin fall hard from its highs?
Market intelligence platform Glassnode says Bitcoin (BTC) is having a “round trip” week. This comes after the market leader climbed to a new yearly high price of $44.6 thousand before falling sharply to $40.2 thousand on Sunday. It took BTC two rallies of over 5% to reach its highest level of the year. However, sales of the cryptocurrency were just as strong. Thus, it suddenly dropped by more than 2.5 thousand dollars. This was BTC’s third biggest decline in 2023.
#Bitcoin performed a round-trip this week, rallying to new yearly highs before selling off back towards its weekly open. After such a powerful 2023 thus far, the rally seems to have met resistance, with several indicators suggesting a degree of near-term exhaustion.
Discover… pic.twitter.com/KSnJI3x8Ch
— glassnode (@glassnode) December 12, 2023
After a very strong year, BTC appears to have encountered very strong resistance. Glassnode data shows that there are several indicators that point to a “degree of near-extinction” in the Bitcoin price. In fact, several of Glassnode’s on-chain models reveal that BTC’s “fair value” based on investor cost basis and network throughput currently hovers around $30k to $36k. According to the intelligence platform, the decline in BTC’s price is most likely due to short-term holders (STHs) taking profits.
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