As the crypto community’s anticipation for the upcoming Bitcoin halving grows, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) recently revealed his observations of historical patterns associated with this quadrennial event. Highlighting the evolving emotions and speculations, CZ pointed out the dominant themes before and after the halving events.
Binance CEO announced his Bitcoin expectations
CZ observed that the months leading up to the halving are often characterized by increased rhetoric, different emotions, and rising expectations in the cryptocurrency space. “With Bitcoin halving a few months away, there is more chatter, news, concern, anticipation, excitement, hope, etc. “It will happen,” he said. Referring to the widespread belief that the Bitcoin price will rise suddenly after the halving, CZ refuted such thoughts based on historical examples. “Bitcoin price will not double overnight the day after the halving. “Then people will ask why it didn’t happen,” he said, touching on the expectations that followed.
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1711092143601729613
While short-term post-halving reactions have been moderate, CZ shed light on a longer-term trend in which Bitcoin typically reaches all-time highs (ATHs) in the year that follows. “People’s memories are short-term,” he said, referring to the market’s ability to quickly switch from skepticism to amazement. However, CZ called for caution, emphasizing that historical patterns should not be interpreted as definitive indicators of future behavior. “I’m not saying causality has been proven. “And history cannot predict the future,” he added.
Analysis about halving
Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently published an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s halving, offering a more detailed view of the potential phases surrounding the event, which is just 197 days and a few hours away according to Binance’s estimates. Citing historical patterns, the analyst suggested a possible deeper pullback for Bitcoin in the 140 days leading up to the halving. Drawing historical parallels, Rekt Capital said, “You can debate whether 2023 is more like 2015 or 2019… At this same point in the cycle (i.e. ~200 days before halving) BTC is down -24% in 2015 and 2019.” “It does not change the fact that it also retreated -38%.” said.
Predicting market dynamics as the halving approaches, Rekt Capital suggested that a historically pre-halving rally will occur approximately 60 days before the event. As CZ noted, this phase, marked by investor enthusiasm and high expectations, is generally characterized by the buying of halving expectations. However, this euphoric phase does not last long. Around the halving event, the market often exhibits a pullback behavior under the slogan “buy the rumor, sell the news”. Underlining this trend, the analyst cited the -38% drop in 2016 and the -20% drop in 2020 as moments when the market re-evaluated the short-term effects of the halving.
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