In a remarkable comeback, Bitcoin has emerged from its historic September slumber. Thus, it showed a positive performance for the first time since 2016. This success comes in the face of significant resistance from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications.
Bitcoin rally despite SEC review
As you follow from Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin started the month at approximately $25,800. However, the leading cryptocurrency is up nearly 4%, reaching nearly $27,000 at the time of writing. Despite the SEC repeatedly delaying multiple BTC spot ETF applications, BTC has rallied. Last month, the regulator delayed decisions on more than seven applications even in light of recent efforts to speed up the approval process.
Bitcoin Monthly Returns. Source: CoinglassAccording to Coinglass data, this price increase marks Bitcoin’s fourth positive September since 2013 and its first positive September since 2016. However, despite this strong September, Bitcoin suffered its first quarterly loss of the year. The cryptocurrency has lost approximately 12% of its value in the last three months. This also needs to be pointed out.
An “Uptomber” expectation
Looking ahead, investors are cautiously optimistic about an October rally for Bitcoin. Historically, the cryptocurrency has performed well during this month. In this context, despite a significant market downturn last October that led to the collapse of many crypto-related firms, including FTX and Celsius, Bitcoin still managed to post a gain of 5.56%.
Crypto analyst Tedtalksmacro explains this strong October performance as a “period of positive seasonality.” Tedtalksmacro said, “According to the average of the last three years, October was the month in which Bitcoin performed best. “This positive seasonality usually extends into the first quarter of the following year,” he says. However, the analyst makes the following warning:
Before 2022, BTC had never existed in a world where interest rates were much higher than 2%… Yet now, in late 2023, the Federal Funds rate is above 5%. It will also likely remain there for longer as the world’s central banks try to keep inflation under control.
Bitcoin Whales Accumulation. Source: SantimentSantiment: The rally will probably continue in October
Meanwhile, leading Blockchain analysis firm Santiment points out that Bitcoin’s long-term prospects look promising. This view is supported by the fact that whales have been accumulating Bitcoin alongside Tether’s USDT for the past six weeks. According to the company, this accumulation means purchasing power. It also indicates that the rally will likely continue into October. Expectations are high for October. However, it is important to note that the SEC’s decision on any of the spot-ETF applications could potentially impact Bitcoin price behavior.
Will history repeat itself for Bitcoin?
“In the past, a green September resulted in a green October, November and December,” says popular analyst Jelle in one part of his analysis. Then the analyst asked, “Will history repeat itself?” for BTC. he asks. A day earlier, Jelle predicted better conditions for Q4, including a breakout above $30,000 for the first time since early August.
After months of accumulating coins, and slowly preparing us for the bull market, I think its time.
Expecting Q4 to bring new strength — and a break of $30k.
Send it.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/vkl0aq5hRS
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) September 29, 2023
“Textbook decline techniques”
Meanwhile, Material Indicators track longer and shorter time frames. In part of his additional commentary, Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan says the following about Bitcoin:
Killer whales are likely to step up their weekend whale play around the Daily, Weekly and Monthly candle closes. Don’t fall into the trap!
We are heading into the last #trading day of the month with textbook bearish Technicals from the Key Moving Averages on Daily, Weekly and Monthly TFs and #TrendPrecognition is flashing a new #TradingSignals on the #BTC Daily chart as if it knows we have a looming U.S.… pic.twitter.com/l9Mm2SHyFu
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) September 30, 2023
A snapshot of the BTC order book on the largest global exchange, Binance, showed bid liquidity gathering around $26,800. Sellers are lurking at $27,500.
BTC order book data for Binance. Source: Material IndicatorsOthers, like another popular analyst Daan Crypto Trades, were expecting less volatile conditions until just before the new week. Analyst: “We experienced fluctuation last week. However, open interest rates fell. So I doubt we’ll see any weird price action until later on Sunday,” he says. An accompanying chart shows that the CME Group Bitcoin futures opening and closing prices potentially act as a magnet for the BTC spot price. By the way, this is a common phenomenon.
BTC annotated chart. Source Daan Crypto TradesFollow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram and join our Telegram and YouTube channels to be instantly informed about the latest developments!
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