Bumblebees’ days in Europe may be numbered. In new research, scientists predict that three-quarters of wild bee species in the region will experience a significant population decline in the next few decades due to human-induced problems such as climate change. While there is hope that these critical pollinators may still find refuge in certain areas, this is not certain, the authors say.
Bumblebees (or Bumblebees) are insects belonging to the genus Bombus, with more than 250 species known worldwide. Like other bees, they play an important role in pollinating wild plants and agricultural crops, especially in the Northern Hemisphere where they are most abundant. But bumblebees as a whole have been experiencing major population problems in Europe, North America and Asia for decades. There are various reasons for this decline, but prominent among them are habitat loss, climate change and the spread of dangerous diseases.
Scientists in Belgium tried to examine the future of wild bees in Europe in a new study published in the journal Nature. To come up with their predictions, they analyzed relevant data collected from most of Europe going back to the 1900s. They then created models that attempted to explain various scenarios of how climate and habitable land use for bumblebees would change over time.
The team predicted that, under the most likely scenarios, many European bumblebees currently classified as “Least Concern” species (species that do not face an imminent threat) would begin to decline within decades. Compared to the current range from 2000 to 2014, 38% to 76% of these species are projected to lose at least 30% of their habitable range by 2061 to 2080, according to the study. Wild bees living in the Arctic and high mountain regions face a much bigger problem. These species are expected to have lost at least 90% of their territory by then, putting them on the fast track to extinction.
One possibility the researchers found in all the scenarios they modeled is that many of these species could find habitats in parts of Scandinavia and recover. However, they warn that this future is not guaranteed, as it is possible that other dangers to the bees’ habitats may still arise that were not taken into account by the team’s models.
While more research is needed to better understand how climate change and habitat loss will affect bumblebee populations, the overall conclusion is clear, according to the authors: The fate of the world’s bumblebees is literally in our hands.
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