One trader says BTC price action is stuck below $30,000. Hence, he suggests that after July, Bitcoin may finally gain a trend identity. So, is BTC price ‘fireworks’ after monthly close? Crypto expert William Suberg reviews 5 things to know this week for Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market.
Sticky price range for leading crypto may change!
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin was extremely stable last week. Even the US rate hike and accompanying macroeconomic data failed to change the small trading range. BTC price watchers had to console themselves with a corridor between $29,000 and $29,500.
BTC 1-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe weekly close sees some spikes up and down. However, a short-term trend remains glaringly absent. “The market will try to shake you as we head towards the monthly close,” monitoring resource Material Indicators wrote in a recent comment. A chart accompanying the BTC/USD order book on Binance showed that the current trading range is clearly defined by buy and sell liquidity.
BTC order book data on Binance. Source: Material Indicators/TwitterThe calm before the storm for crypto markets!
On the subject of liquidity, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades has identified key levels to watch on lower timeframes. Ahead of the weekly close, data from CoinGlass told Twitter followers, “The ~29K and ~29.6K levels correspond nicely to the current lower timeframe range. So it’s good to continue to monitor these areas.” says. CoinGlass also shows that historically, July has been a “green” month for Bitcoin for the past six years, excluding the 6.6% loss in 2019.
BTC/USD monthly yield chart. Source CoinGlassOther trader Jelle predicts that next week will be the calm before the storm for the markets. In this context, the analyst said, “I expect this week to be slow, but the fireworks displays to start next week. I am preparing accordingly.” says. He also adds that he is already accumulating BTC.
BTC/USD explanatory chart. Source Jelle/TwitterMACD signal creates key Bitcoin bull argument
Despite being on track to close July with losses, Bitcoin gets investors excited on monthly timeframes for another reason. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator will confirm a bullish crossover that traditionally precedes prolonged periods of BTC price increases. As various market participants noted last week, the monthly close is still awaited to lock in the bullish EMA cross on the one-month BTC chart.
https://twitter.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1685633151022874624
Trade center Stockmoney Lizards is comparing the potential impact of the upcoming crossover to a similar event in late 2015, where Bitcoin set the stage for an all-time high two years later. Now, not only the monthly but also the daily MACD is improving the prospects for the bulls. On one-day timeframes, analyst Kevin Svenson describes both the MACD and the relative strength index (RSI) as being in a “weird position” due to a lack of momentum. “We are entering the usual ‘completion zone’ where the market is making a move. Sensitivity is very neutral right now,” he adds.
BTC chart with MACD and RSI data. Source: Kevin Svenson/TwitterAfter a busy macro week, US jobs data comes in
A quieter week for macroeconomic data means risk assets, including crypto, have less chance of finding something to react to. However, unemployment data will be the focus of the mood in the US after repeated signals that inflation is both declining and that the labor market is taking a step-by-step inflationary cycle.
“There’s a lot of important employment data this week,” the financial commentator The Kobeissi Letter summarizes. In addition, Kobeissi notes that about a quarter of S&P 500 companies will report earnings during the week. “Economic data remains extremely important as the Fed determines what to do in September,” the analyst adds. Thus, he refers to the impact of data on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Key Events This Week:
1. ISM Manufacturing data – Tuesday
2. JOLTS Jobs data – Tuesday
3. ADP Payrolls data – Wednesday
4. Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. July Jobs report – Friday
6. ~25% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings
A lot of important jobs data this week.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 30, 2023
Stablecoin traders “loading”
Last week was about the percentage of long-term holders holding an all-time high of 75% of the BTC supply. Now, investors are accumulating stablecoins towards the monthly close. This indicates that they are probably expecting a new surge. As research firm Santiment points out, this trend is seen in many stablecoins, including the two largest stablecoins. In this context, Santiment makes the following statement:
Key whale and shark stablecoin wallets seem to be loading during Bitcoin’s visit to under $30,000 at the end of the month. Tether, USDCoin, BinanceUSD and Dai are seeing supply shifting to these key wallets.
Stablecoin accumulation explanatory chart. Source: Santiment/TwitterThe number of crypto whale wallets drops
The changes in whales’ BTC exposure took an interesting turn. The largest volume of investors is going through the changes, which on-chain analytics firm Glassnode describes as “significant.” Accordingly, net risk has decreased by 255,000 BTC since May 30. The number of wallets currently holding 1,000 BTC ($294 million) or more confirms this. Also, Glassnode records the lowest such wallet numbers in four months.
Graph of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode/TwitterAs of July 31, there has been about 35 drops since the beginning of July. As a result, there were 2,006 wallets with at least 1,000 BTC balances.
Graph of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 0.01 BTC. Source Glassnode/TwitterIn contrast, wallets containing at least 0.01 BTC hit ATH of 12,214,918 on the same day.
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