The Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in April 2024. Analysts continue to make price predictions. Forecasts come from not only analysts but also investment companies.
Bitcoin predictions
Investment research firm Fundstrat has a forecast for Bitcoin. Accordingly, BTC will increase by 500% before the halving. Its price will reach $ 180,000. The design of the Bitcoin algorithm is our focus. The Bitcoin network experiences a halving cycle approximately every four years. It undergoes a ‘halving’ that reduces the number of BTC minted with each new block. This is happening historically. There is also another situation where the network evolves due to changes in hashrate and difficulty. The cost of operating mining equipment either stays the same or increases. As a result of all this, there is an increase in price due to the decrease in new supply.
Fundstrat made the key points in a note to clients Monday. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s daily demand of approximately $25 million is equivalent to the current daily mining rewards of approximately $25 million. But he said all that could change if a spot Bitcoin ETF were released. Fundstrat points out one case, stating that the launch of an ETF in Bitcoin would increase daily demand to $125 million. Accordingly, he points out that this demand is now 25 million. Accordingly, the implied equilibrium price would have to rise in order for the daily supply to match the daily demand. Equilibrium analysis shows a swap price of $140,000 to $180,000 before the April 2024 halving.
multiplier effect
Based on the current price of BTC, the daily mining reward will drop to $12.5 million after the halving. Accordingly, this means that the price must rise significantly to reach an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Fundstrat head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, sent a note to clients in early July. In the note, he said it is reasonable to assume a multiplier effect in the 4.0x to 5.0x range for the Bitcoin network. This means that for 1 dollar of demand, it can lead to an increase of 4 or 5 dollars.
Farrell added that he sees a 75% probability of approval of the spot BTC ETF in the near term, after applications from some of the world’s largest asset managers, including BlackRock and Fidelity. “The Bitcoin ETF is sure to attract new investors to the field,” Farrell said. We predict it will create more demand for Bitcoin.” said. He also added that approval for BlackRock could lead to one of the largest ETF launches on record. The Invesco QQQ ETF holds the current record after attracting $36 billion in entries in the first year after its launch in March 1999.
Passing the precious metals ETF market
Fundstrat thinks the Bitcoin ETF will eventually become a category with more than $300 billion. On the other hand, he thinks this figure will surpass the precious metals ETF market, which currently has approximately $230 billion in assets.
Mark Yusko, founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, makes important assessments. At this point, he states that the price of Bitcoin will reach $ 300,000 by 2028. If we look at the Buy comment as cryptokoin.com, we will see that Fundstrat is not alone. Yusko argues that BTC may eventually catch up with the value of the precious metal. He points out that the market value of Yusko Gold is approximately $6 trillion. He also says what will happen when Bitcoin reaches a market cap of $6 trillion. According to this, he states that the price will reach at least 300 thousand dollars.
Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin prediction
Earlier in July, Standard Chartered set a target of $50,000 for Bitcoin this year. On the other hand, the target for the end of 2024 is 120 thousand dollars. This forecast comes after an April update where the bank said the “crypto winter” was over and predicted that BTC would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Matrixport made BTC predictions
Crypto services provider Matrixport also said that it sees Bitcoin rising to as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024. Matrixport released a report on July 5. In the report, there is an emphasis on the date of 22 June 2023. According to this, Bitcoin reached its highest level in a year for the first time in a year. Pointing out that this signal was triggered four times, Matrixport emphasizes that the bull market is fully opened within 12-18 months in all four cases. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of 2024, according to Matrixport.
Jim Wyckoff: Bears and bulls are fighting
Bitcoin futures prices for August rose in early US trading on Thursday, according to analyst Jim Wyckoff. “Prices recovered modestly late this week,” Wyckoff said. However, there is still an incipient downtrend on the daily bar chart, albeit at higher price levels.” says.
“Bulls and bears are generally in a near-term technical playing field at the moment,” Wyckoff said. is emphasizing. According to Matrixport research manager Markus Thielen, Bitcoin has not reached its summer target of $35,000. Currently, there is a risk of retesting Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average. Bitcoin frequently retests its 200-day moving average during bear markets (March 2022) and bull markets (March 2023). The 200-day moving average is currently at $26,500. Accordingly, this means that Bitcoin could drop another 8% from its current level to retest the 200MA.
Bitcoin predictions by Poppe and Rekt Capital
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, also sees further bearish potential before BTC price resumes its uptrend. But he predicts a shallower pullback than Thielen. He also predicts that BTC will drop as low as $28,500.
Market analyst Rekt Capital, on the other hand, underlines a one-month close above the $29,250 support. Accordingly, he emphasizes that this support level will mean confirmation that his test will be successful. On the other hand, he states that this situation will at least move BTC towards 35 thousand dollars.
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