Senior market analyst Peter Brandt shared his views on spot Bitcoin ETF applications and the upcoming halving. His staggering forecasts include that these developments will ‘not live up to’ expectations.
Peter Brandt denies impact of major Bitcoin news
You can check out this article for the analyst’s accurate predictions. In his current analysis, Brandt argues that, contrary to expectations, important developments such as spot ETF and halving may not be effective in terms of price. These two developments are the catalysts that BTC bulls trust most for the next bull market. However, from Brandt’s point of view, they should not be viewed as a definitive ‘bullish harbinger’.
Bitcoin halving is a 4-year cycle in which BTC rewards are halved. The next Bitcoin halving will take place in April 2024. On this date, the block rewards will drop from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3,125. Decreased BTC production, in theory, increases its price. Historically, BTC has always reached new highs after these cycles.
‘The news is already priced in’
Brandt says the Bitcoin halving effect and a Bitcoin ETF are already reflected in prices. It highlights the complexity of forecasting and pricing future events. The Bitcoin ETF will also likely be non-event. Big companies like BlackRock and Fidelity are scrambling to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF that tracks the real price of Bitcoin instead of Bitcoin futures. It is believed that such a product will increase institutional investment and raise the price.
However, Brandt suggests it won’t have a big impact either. The senior analyst argues that Bitcoin’s priority position, its relationship with other markets, is the important factor that can be excluded initially.
Fidelity’s latest report highlights important halving detail
Fidelity, one of the key players in ETF filings, claimed in its latest report that Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow rate (S2F) will surpass gold after the next halving cycle. Despite the nature of this news, BTC’s demand has not shown any signs of recovery.
One of the key takeaways from the report was that Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio could surpass that of gold. It did not provide an accurate prediction, but suggested it as a possible outcome after the next halving cycle.
From a Fidelity report on the case for Bitcoin:
After the upcoming halving in ~8 months, Bitcoin will have a higher stock to flow ratio than Gold pic.twitter.com/csd6hsn4cR
— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) July 25, 2023
The Fidelity report suggests that after the 2024 Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin will be scarcer than gold. This will be an important turning point when it comes to demand. The report also highlighted demand factors that underline Bitcoin’s appeal. Some of these reasons were inflation, increased money supply, central bank and government intervention.
Is Bitcoin recovering?
Despite the report, demand for Bitcoin was still low. The open interest level in BTC is still significantly less than it was during the 2021 bull market. However, its demand in the derivatives market was growing.
Meanwhile, the BTC price has been falling since the Fed rate decision of July 26. As we quoted as Kriptokoin.com, the $2.08 billion option contract, which will expire today, also puts more pressure on it in the short term.
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