Despite the recent decline in the altcoin market, the bulls have successfully maintained critical support levels. ALGO, SHIB, ADA and Ripple are trading technical levels that provide opportunities in both directions. Key levels and metrics to watch next week…
Weekly technical analysis: ALGO, SHIB, ADA, Ripple
Algorand (ALGO) price is trading at a low of almost four months at $0.18. Usually, this decline is offset by the rise of its investors. But that will not be the case for ALGO. The reason behind this is that ALGO investors are currently lackluster. It’s not just a certain portion showing a bearish trend, more than 96% of investors are expecting losses.
Most ALGO traders bought in the 20% range of $2.38, the ATH level in September 2021. These investors accumulated their stashes at prices above $1.89. Overall, this group represents a small fraction of all investors. But in the case of Algorand, it’s the opposite as 16.75 million addresses, or 96% of all investors, buy at ATH.
Majority of ALGO investors are waiting in loss
With the price of ALGO at its current price levels, all these investors are currently at a loss. Also, the altcoin will need to rise 870% to 1000% for their supply to become profitable again. The probability of this happening seems pretty low. The only option for these traders is to either wait or leave the market at a loss.
Apparently, this may have happened as the equilibrium categorized by time indicates that most of the ALGO supply is in the hands of mid-term holders. Also known as “cruise”, these interim holders are addresses that hold their supply for a period of between 1 month and 12 months.
About 67% of the entire ALGO supply was purchased during this time. Only 20% of the supply has been dormant for more than a year. It will potentially hurt the ‘Cruisers’ class further, as the bulk sale of long-term investments could trigger further declines in ALGO price. This supply lacks the faith of long-term investors. Therefore, there is a possibility that even a nominal drop in prices will lead to panic selling.
The only way to counter this situation is for the price of Algorand to rally miraculously. Even the highest level since the new year does not mean profit for investors.
Cardano (ADA)
On the other hand, Cardano reports some positive numbers in terms of price, network and infrastructure. Santiment noted that in more than 30 days, there has been a significant peak in developments aimed at increasing competitiveness. Price action doesn’t seem to have reacted to that yet. That means it can still be priced in.
The point where ADA price crosses $0.42 will be the starting point for more. According to technical analyst Filip L., it could reach the mid-April high of $0.46 again. If it rises further from here, $0.48 per month close to R2 will mean a 15% gain.
It should be noted that these improvements do not always work. So the peak in development could have had another motivation not officially reported by Cardano. If this leaks or hits the news wires, ADA would return to $0.37 fairly quickly with a 10% devaluation.
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
In one notable chart, SHIB’s price has fallen for most of the year but is showing bullish signs on a short-term support line. On the daily chart, SHIB price has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle since June 2022. This model is considered neutral. That is, the probability of both an upside break and a downside breakout is equal.
Currently, the price is in the middle of a triangle with a downward trajectory since experiencing a resistance line rejection on Feb. Additionally, RSI analyzes support the continuation of the decline.
The six-hour time frame is giving mixed signals and an uncertain forecast for SHIB price. This is mainly due to price action, which suggests that the first bounce will happen. In summary, the support line of the triangle will be at $0.00000850 if the decline continues according to the above indicators.
If the price rallies at the support line of the pattern, it will potentially head towards a maximum of $0.0000170. However, if it breaks through the support line, it is expected to drop to $0.00000850.
Ripple (XRP)
On-chain data shows that long-term XRP investors are getting more and more bullish on their price expectations. According to the chart below, the Average Coin Age of XRP tokens has increased significantly this month. Since the last drop around March 31, it has risen from 1,301 to 1,325 as of April 25.
Therefore, it may not be possible for investors to sell around current prices. This typically indicates that despite the recent price downtrend, long-term network participants still have confidence in XRP’s future price prospects and utility.
Also, the accumulation wave among XRP whales confirms the bullish momentum in the Ripple ecosystem.
The Santiment chart below shows how the whale cluster holding one million to ten million XRPs has bought the dip since last week. The yellow line indicates that the whales intensified the accumulation around April 18. Since then, they have purchased 50 million XRP worth about $23.5 million with a current market cap of $0.47.
XRP technical analysis
Technically, XRP traders managed to hold the $0.45 support level, which maintains the bullish bias. Notably, most of its investors who bought XRP in the past month are sitting on unrealized losses of around 5%. Historical data shows that they are unlikely to sell until the price is up another 12% to reach $0.52.
According to technical analyst Ryan James, if XRP can break above the $0.52 resistance, it could enter a prolonged rally towards the $0.60 region before the bears start to rally again. As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, XRP is currently trading at $0.4769.
Conversely, the bears will reverse the trend if the XRP price drops below $0.45. However, they will likely offer bullish support at this level as traders try to keep their losing positions below 10%. Otherwise, XRP is headed towards the next key support level at $0.40.
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