Bitcoin (BTC) price is about to lose a key technical level ahead of its historically bullish halving. Technical analysts are discussing new lows that will emerge in a regional situation.
Bitcoin price’s next pre-halving position
Bitcoin broke above the 200-day MA for the first time since the end of 2021 in January of this year. The Ascension was a significant milestone as it hadn’t seen such a signal in over a year. BTC is currently trading above this trendline. However, its recent decline increases the chances of a breakout of the 200-day MA, which coincides with $28,000.
According to crypto analyst Ben Lily, the $28,000 level will be an important factor to consider from the halving.
According to historical data, when BTC breaks out of the lows of the halving cycle, it usually does not immediately lose the 200-day moving average (MA) and stays above it.
Instead, it tends to return below the 200-day MA before eventually starting to climb to ATH levels. This pattern can be observed in the chart below, which shows the 200-day MA (represented by the solid red line) and the orange rings indicating the price has dropped below the 200-day MA.
Will it be enough for Bitcoin to maintain the 200-day MA?
Analyst Lily argues that there is nothing to indicate that the market should expect something different this time. He believes a catalyst coming this summer will coincide with the Bitcoin price falling below the 200-day MA.
Elsewhere, popular crypto analyst Micheal van de Poppe shared a BTC chart that suggests price movements are unpredictable.
#Bitcoin is currently showing weakness.
Broke back in the range, lost one of the crucial levels.
Final crucial level is at $27,600. Could take liquidity beneath, but needs a fast recovery.
If not, and no break of $28,800, then I suspect we'll see $26,200. pic.twitter.com/TuCaFq8eIk
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 21, 2023
The crypto analyst identified the next critical point for BTC at $27,600. Considering that Bitcoin previously held support here before breaking above $30,000, this becomes a significant level. Van de Poppe explained that the rally can continue from here, but it has to be fast. “It can get liquidity under it, but it needs a quick recovery,” he explained.
On the other side of this, there is resistance at $28,800 mounted by the bears. At this point, the analyst explains that surpassing this level has become very important. If the bulls fail to retrace this level, the price could decline to the $26,000 region.
How is the BTC price on April 22?
BTC is currently at a point where it becomes crucial that it sees at least some positivity if it is to continue to hold its value. This is because its drop to $28,000 puts it firmly below the 20-day moving average. Therefore, while Bitcoin continued to rise in the long term, it quickly entered a downward trend in the short term.
Additionally, highlighting the 200 MA, analyst Lily provided further analysis on the potential impact of FedNow, the Fed’s CBDC, on Bitcoin’s price movements. According to Lily, if the launch happens in July as planned, it could benefit BTC’s price trajectory.
The Fed’s influence on the new cryptocurrency and BTC
The analyst states that in each of the last three halving cycles, the price of Bitcoin fell below the 200-day moving average (MA) 217 to 315 days before the halving. If this pattern holds for the current halving cycle, we can expect BTC price to drop below the 200-day MA between June and August.
Also, due to the FedNow launch in the middle of this period, it adds to the increased regulatory pressure. This could be another downside catalyst for BTC price. As Kriptokoin.com, we have stated that in its current location, its whales are heading for new hunts.
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