The altcoin market has been falling since March 3, when the Silvergate bankruptcy news came to the fore. ATOM and DOGE lost double digits in popular cryptos. What levels do crypto analysts set?
Altcoin market suffers from general pressure accumulating
The Cosmos price started to show declines of over 5% as the overall pressure increased. ATOM price has been falling within a descending channel since late February. According to analysts, bears can be expected to pull ATOM to the support zone of the descending channel. Supporting this bearish view is the potential bearish crossover between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs at $12.65. If the bears continue to go wild, it will likely trigger the said sell signal, causing a new wave of bearish momentum.
In such a case, Cosmos price could decline to renew the critical support level at $10.55 and as a result, it might turn towards the $9.32 exchange. Altogether, this move meant a 13.61% drop in ATOM’s market cap, although the extreme bearish trend would return the altcoin to its December 2022 low of $8.47, losing a total of 13.61%. It can bring it to 21.74.
Silvergate Capital, one of the main banks lending to the crypto industry, said it is shutting down and liquidating. More here: https://t.co/vrJvhRDhpO pic.twitter.com/Sr2SzBPClT
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) March 9, 2023
On the positive side, Cosmos price could rise if investors ignore the bearish signal and increase buying momentum. A daily candlestick closing above the middle line of the descending channel at $11.09 could increase the likelihood of a recovery.
However, only the $11.52 resistance level to turn into a support base will invalidate the bearish view. In such a case, Cosmos price may attempt a breakout from the descending parallel channel. A successful move could see ATOM grappling with the next resistance at $11.98. In highly ambitious situations, Cosmos price could rally higher to the $13.35 resistance or higher to the $14.35 resistance. Such a climb would mean an increase of 32.32% from current levels.
Altcoin bull season is far away
Simply put, alt season is considered to have arrived when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin. This performance is measured over a 90-day season. Although Bitcoin topped most of the altcoins on the list, a few of them not only outperformed Bitcoin, but overall they performed horribly. The leading cryptocurrency on this front is Dogecoin.
Elon Musk’s favorite cryptocurrency, which fell by about 26% in three months, lagged behind cryptocurrencies such as Luna Classic (LUNC) and Huobi Token (HT). Both LUNC and HT decreased by only 21% and 24%, respectively. This happened despite the fact that LUNC was once a crashed Blockchain.
The crypto market is currently experiencing a Bitcoin season, while Dogecoin is pulling altcoins down. The last altcoin season was observed from August to September 2022, when BTC fell more than 23% in three weeks.
Where Dogecoin price currently stands
If DOGE breaks below the $0.067 support level, it could become vulnerable to an immediate drop to $0.057. These drops were last seen by Dogecoin holders in September 2022, and such a drop would have resulted in a 20% crash.
The same seems likely, as the main Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) act as resistance levels. The Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) indicator also highlights an active downtrend as evidenced by the presence of the blue dots above the candlesticks.
However, the RSI is approaching the oversold zone below the 30.0 mark. This area has historically been known to trigger a trend reversal that could lead to a rebound in Dogecoin price.
However, DOGE will need to rally by around 16% and surpass the critical resistance at $0.082 to invalidate the bearish thesis. This allows the altcoin to eventually rally to its year-to-date high of $0.095 and even reach its local high of $0.100.
Vechain bulls take a cold shower as bear market fears loom
After the bulls have already had to abandon the green ascending trendline and the 55-day SMA, Vechain price is falling again. VET has approached $0.022 only as the last line of defense at the 200-day SMA and monthly S1 support level. With the increasing downward pressures, the bulls should emerge once this level is broken. The most accurate prediction would be for the price action in VET to stretch as low as 27% towards $0.017.
Considering the RSI is almost oversold again, an upside bounce would make sense here. Some upside moves can be seen this time with the 55-day SMA on the upside hitting $0.025 as resistance. In this case, a nice roughly 11% gain could be made for the bulls to feast on.
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