A few days ago, ITU Mining and Geological Engineering lecturer Prof. Dr. In an interview, Cenk Yaltırak stated that there are 4 risky fault lines instead of 1 in Istanbul and that the expected earthquake in 2026 may be much larger than expected.
In addition to this statement, Yaltırak also mentioned that the data on which we rely on earthquake risk in our country are not reliable. The most striking of these was that, with the effect of the agenda, 2 earthquakes were reported instead of 3 earthquakes.
But if everyone proceeds in the light of concrete data, how do different results emerge?
According to Yaltırak, the first earthquake centered in Kahramanmaraş with a magnitude of 7.7 is actually a combination of two earthquakes. In other words, this situation emerged when two faults broke at the same time.
With the earthquake of 7.6 magnitude that took place later, the fact that there were actually 3 earthquakes emerges. In order to detect earthquakes occurring at the same time, Yaltırak says, it is necessary to look at devices that measure ground motion with extreme precision.
In addition to these, the Kandilli Observatory confirmed on Twitter that the 7.7-magnitude earthquake that took place in Kahramanmaraş on February 6, 2023 at 04:17 occurred with 3 different shocks and that the earthquake lasted longer than 80 seconds. In addition, the statement said, “The earthquake was broken on both sides (NE-SW), with a single piece in the south and two pieces in the NE-direction, and with a total of Mw=7.7, it discharged its energy with an earthquake. In short, multiple fracture analysis is a scientific statement, It does not change the fact that the earthquake was Mw = 7.7.” Using his statements, the officials stated that there was no mistake in the calculations.
A similar situation was seen in the 1999 earthquake.
In other words, according to Yaltırak’s words, in the 1999 earthquake, the magnitude of which was determined as 7.4 by the Kandilli Observatory and 7.6 by the USGS, there were 3 consecutive or intertwined earthquakes.
The first of these was 6.9, the other 7.0, and the last 7.4; but the first two are overshadowed by 7.4. We can say that this explains why the US Geological Survey (USGS) achieved a higher value.
So how does this happen?
According to Yaltırak’s statements, the 7.4 magnitude that occurred in the 1999 earthquake was caused by the simultaneous rupture of two faults. The same is true for the first earthquake in Kahramanmaraş. The earthquake, which was announced by the Kandilli Observatory with a magnitude of 7.7, revealed a magnitude of 7.7 with the breaking of not one, but two faults at its base.
So why is this important?
According to this information, the earthquakes we expect -which is now on the agenda after Kahramanmaraş, Istanbul- may go far beyond the expected intensity and cause greater destruction.
The reason for this again lies in Yaltırak’s statements. According to his studies, we are looking at a wrong danger map for the country, and according to the more consistent map in question, more than one fault will break during the Marmara earthquake.
This will both cause a greater oscillation of violence during the Marmara earthquake, where great destruction is currently expected, and many structures that are thought to be safe will suffer greatly due to the inconsistent danger map.
Source: Prof. Dr. Cenk Yaltirak, Cansu Camlibel/T24
You can refer to the content below to see the inconsistent earthquake map and the hazards that come with it.
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