Crypto analyst Akash Girimath is assessing the possibility of a final bear market rally in Bitcoin (BTC) for 2022. A popular analyst says that Bitcoin will reach $10,000.
Bitcoin price and potential games
Bitcoin price is forming a falling wedge on the three-day chart, which is explained using trendlines to link two lower highs and three lower lows. The third retest of the lower trendline is still in play as BTC hovers around $16,500. BTC price has been producing lower lows for the past five months. Also, the popular momentum indicator Relative Strength Index (RSI) has made higher lows. This dissonance or ‘convergence’ is a sign of budding bullish momentum. Also, it is an indication of a reversal in the market.
Therefore, investors can expect the Bitcoin price to increase by 17%. Thus, BTC will label $19,011 the highest trading volume level of 2022, namely the Point of Control (POC). This view may seem difficult to accept, as investors are still reeling from the LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX crashes. However, more bullish views are possible if Bitcoin turns the POC into a support level. This development is likely to cause an increase in buying pressure by attracting investors who have been cast aside. Such a scenario is likely to push BTC to break through and overcome the descending trendline of the falling wedge. This trendline connects the November 2021 and March 2022 levels.
BTC 1-day chartTherefore, a solid three-day candlestick above this blockade will signal a shift in the narrative. Besides, it will start a 54% rally towards $32,191. The target for this breakout is obtained by measuring the distance between the first high swing and low swing of the falling wedge and adding it to the breakout point at $20,560. While the aforementioned 17% move may seem counterintuitive for investors in this bear market, they should not be caught off guard if the 54% bullish scenario occurs.
On-chain landscape after Thanksgiving for Bitcoin
The 24-hour active addresses index for BTC, which rose to 1.15 million on November 20, supports this revealing view. This indicator last reached 1.15 million in May 2022. In the crypto industry, investors are still interacting with the Bitcoin Blockchain and are quite active.
BTC 24-hour active addressesTaken on its own, the active addresses metric means nothing. However, when combined with the Supply Distribution indicator developed by Santiment, the two provide a more complete picture. The famous ‘whales’ are showing strong signs of accumulation after the November 22 crash. In the last three days, the total balance of 100 to 10,000 BTC addresses has increased by approximately 60,000 BTC. This shows that investors are clearly buying the dip.
BTC supply distributionIt’s interesting that the ‘buy from the bottom’ keyword didn’t have the momentum on November 22nd during the November 10 crash. This drop in the Social Volume metric shows individual investors burning during the second nose dive on Nov. Combined with the fact that the accumulation is seen in whales holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC, it is possible to assume that this is a wealth transfer and ‘smart money’ from weak hands to strong hands.
BTC social volumeTo summarize, it looks like an end-of-year rally is being prepared for the Bitcoin price. Whether it’s an explosive move up 17% to $19,011 or $32,191, traders need to stay prepared. On the other hand, if Bitcoin price fails to react to bullish indicators and produces a three-day or weekly candlestick below the $15,550 support level, the bullish view will be invalidated. This development will create a lower bottom, spooking investors and triggering a selling spree. In such a case, Bitcoin is likely to revisit the support area stretching from $13,575 to $11,898.
BTC price dropping to $10,000?
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, analyst Peter Brandt predicts that the Bitcoin price will drop to $14,000. Digital Wealth CTO Daniele Bernardi expects the BTC price to drop to $14,500. Michael van de Poppe, on the other hand, predicts that the price of Bitcoin will slide to $ 10,000. He states that people wanted to buy Bitcoin below $20,000, but after the collapse of FTX, people are now selling Bitcoin at a loss. However, if Bitcoin rises above the $16,800-17,000 range, a rally to $18,400 is possible. The support range is $16,250-16,450.
Bitcoin (BTC) price historical dataLong-term BTC accumulation
The crypto market is under FUD due to the gradual impact of the FTX bankruptcy. This shows that there are more sufficient possibilities for a BTC drop. Some are definitely hoarding Bitcoin for the long-term perspective. According to on-chain data, the rate of BTC, which seems to have been purchased between 1 week and 1 month, has recently reached 3% of the total UXTO. This is the lowest point on a downtrend, but has been increasing since the FTX crisis.
Long-term Bitcoin accumulation / Source: CryptoQuantGenerally, traders continue to look for buying opportunities in a bear market. They also maintain stable profits by selling split in a bull market.
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