Peter Brandt, a former commodity trader, predicts a potential drop to zero in the price of Bitcoin (BTC). The legendary analyst believes there is a 50 percent probability of this prediction. Here are the details…
Famous analyst Brandt scared with Bitcoin analysis
Chart expert Peter Brandt has been saying for a while that the Bitcoin price could potentially drop to zero. According to Brandt’s latest statements, the probability of such a disaster scenario to occur is 50 percent. But the analysis also has a positive side. Brandt also said that there is a 50 percent probability that BTC will hit $250,000. Namely, he stated that the cryptocurrency has an “asymmetric reward-to-risk” ratio.
Dating back to 2018 I have without apology stated that Bitcoin $BTC has a 50% chance to go to $100,000/$250,000/whatever and 50% chance to go to $Zero. This I still believe, but it means that #BTC represents a highly asymmetrical reward-to-risk trade pic.twitter.com/Iop7HIMkE3
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 2, 2022
Talking about more realistic bearish targets, Brandt recently pointed to $8,000. He suggested that this level could be the lowest point of the ongoing price correction. As we reported on cryptokoin.com, Brandt signaled the final bottom after the collapse of the cryptocurrency in 2020. At the time, the collapse was due to panic caused by the pandemic. However, Bitcoin started a bull run just months after that. In November of last year, it reached $ 69,000.
There are many anti-BTC comments
While the largest cryptocurrency has been around for a while, there are many who believe it will eventually fade into oblivion. One of them is Berkshire Hathaway Vice President Charlie Munger, right-hand man to legendary investor Warren Buffett. Munger recently claimed that it is “very likely” for Bitcoin to go to zero. While such a scenario is highly unlikely, Bitcoin technically could still drop to zero due to some factors. In 2018, Yale University economists estimated the probability of the largest cryptocurrency falling to zero in a single day due to the “black swan” event was 0.4 percent.
As it is known, “black swan” is normally used to name unforeseen events with potentially serious consequences beyond what is expected from a situation. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, drastic impact, and afterthought. The term was popularized by finance professor, author, and former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Taleb had written about the idea of the black swan event in a 2007 book before the 2008 financial crisis.
Taleb states that black swan events are impossible to predict because of their extreme rarity. However, he argues that it had disastrous results and that people should consider a black swan event as an important possibility no matter what. He thinks people should plan for that possibility.
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