The cryptocurrency market has entered the FED week. Bitcoin and altcoins, which started the new week with a decline, are waiting for the FED meeting that will take place between September 20-21. The FOMC members, which are expected to meet on September 20-21, will announce the interest rate decision that determines the monetary policy of the USA. Interest rate hikes are not good for risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the BTC price is likely to depreciate. So what levels are analysts predicting? Let’s see together.
How many basis points will the Fed raise interest rates?
The US Federal Reserve (FED) increased interest rates by 50 basis points in March. After this increase, the institution continued to increase the interest rate in the following months. The FOMC meeting in May increased by 50 basis points and the June meeting by 75 basis points. However, inflation showed signs of decline for the first time in August. However, data in September revealed that even though there was a decrease in inflation, this decrease was smaller than expected.
Now a new Fed meeting is coming. Experts predict an increase of 75 or 100 basis points at the meeting, which will take place between 20-21 September. According to data provided by the Fed Watch tool, 82% of investors are betting on a 75 basis point gain. The remaining 12% expects an increase of 100 basis points. However, there are experts who think that the continuation of interest rate hikes will put the US economy into recession. That’s why the sentiments in the market are extremely complex. So what are the expectations for Bitcoin price?
“Bitcoin price may go to new lows”
As we reported as Kriptokoin.com, BTC made ATH at $ 69,000 in November 2021. However, after that, it fell continuously in the ongoing process. Due to the downward movement in Bitcoin price, the leading cryptocurrency bottomed out in June 2022. It was trading at $17,662 at the time. After this low, there were small rises. However, it fell from the descending resistance line last week. Because of this, BTC has largely lost its gains in recent months.
Currently, BTC is trading at $18,671, down 6.74% in the last 24 hours. BTC is likely to break out of the $19,000 price levels it had this morning. If a breakout occurs, which is likely, the price will fall even harder. As a result of this decline, it is possible that new lows may occur. If BTC closes below $19,000 this week, it would be confirmation for a bear market. A one-week close above the resistance will indicate a downtrend reversal.
“BTC will drop to $15,000”
According to the chart below, the BTC price trend seems to reflect the 2013-2016 rally. At that time, the Bitcoin price rose from the bottom to reach the top. Then it continued its downward trend for about a year to reach the lower zone. Here, the asset remained almost stagnant for about 6 to 8 months and started to rise with the next bull cycle. The current BTC price looks similar to this.
Therefore, it is possible for a similar rise to occur by March 2023. Also, until then, BTC could continue consolidating between $18,000 and $25,000. However, the rise in Fed interest rates in the coming days has the potential to cause a bloodbath in the crypto market. Additionally, the recent price crash supports the arguments of some market analysts who believe that Bitcoin could drop to $15,000 in 2022. Therefore, Bitcoin price is likely to form new lows near $15,000.
“Bitcoin bear market confirmed”
Investors exiting risky assets brought selling pressure to Bitcoin last week. Now the local technical picture in BTC price looks quite alarming. The leading cryptocurrency slumped to lows, where it spent several hours during the long congestion period in June. In fact, the Bitcoin drop came with higher-than-expected US inflation on Tuesday. Inflation data raised expectations for a more hawkish decision at the FED meeting this week.
BTC tested the important moving averages of 50 and 200-week moving averages. After that, it faced a selling pressure. This confirms that we have officially entered the Bitcoin bear market. The streak, which had previously confirmed that the crypto market is growing over the long term, collapsed in June. Thus, it has convinced investors that $10,000 is closer to $30,000 in recent months.
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