Popular crypto analyst Filbfilb says the winter of 2022-2023 is more than a headache for politicians and EU citizens. According to the analyst, it is possible that cryptocurrency hunters around the world will see a tangible impact. Also, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall as low as $10,000 in 2022.
Where is the bottom for Bitcoin this time?
If the approaching winter proves to be a big test for Europe, Bitcoin (BTC) could drop another 50% from current levels. This is a conclusion reached by a popular analyst as BTC failed to retrace the $20,000 support. The analyst, nicknamed Filbfilb, known for his accurate Bitcoin predictions, predicts that BTC will fall as low as $ 10,000 in 2022. For the analyst’s accurate predictions, see this article of Kriptokoin.com.
The analyst largely pinned $3,100 in the last cycle. Regarding the current situation, Filbfilb explains: “Currently, Bitcoin is under great pressure, especially due to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. It’s also heavily associated with “legacy” markets, especially the NASDAQ. So this time is a little different because of the high correlation and external economic forces,” he says. The analyst then notes:
Last time it was pretty easy due to the volume attributed to the $3,100 bottom and an 85% correction. This time around, the volume base is around $11,000. $20,000 – $10,000 doesn’t have much time-based history.
According to the analyst, a lot depends on the winter and the dynamics of how Europe is coping with the winter. In this context, the analyst expects a bad winter dynamic to result in testing of the previous high volume range of $10,000 – $11,000. “Dialogue between NATO and Russia seems imperative about what happens next,” the analyst says. The sooner this happens, the lower it will be for Bitcoin.
How is the current cycle different from the previous bear market?
As the analyst mentioned above, the relationship with “heritage” is very important, he says. In this context, “Bitcoin did not exist in a hard inflation pushing economy. Rather than being hedged against an inflation risk, it acts as a risk-sensitive asset. Therefore, this time is somewhat different. However, we are correcting within the normal time frame. The usual percentage is returning to normal for where we are,” he explains.
Filbfilb said recently that a ‘Q1 rally seemed really obvious’. He also elaborates on his views on this subject. It also explains why he speaks so confidently. In this context, the analyst says:
There are two reasons. First, if you use the starting point of the Bitcoin cycle as the halving of supply emission date, Bitcoin normally exits about 1,000 days after the bear market, which would be Quarter 1. After that, the new narrative begins. Second, we will be past winter. From a game-theoretic point of view, if things are bad and Europe is wintering economically, then things will look very positive for most of next year. Whereas, if things are bad, it seems to increase the possibility of dialogue. I mentioned that it will bring stability in the short term. This can be a positive thought. So I give this scenario a 2/3 chance.
Will 2023 negatively affect the Bitcoin price?
Bitcoin is struggling to get $20,000. The analyst explains 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week. Filbfilb notes:
Purity is probably the way to look at it. Everyone believed their own deception and overlooked the risk. It’s embarrassing for financial professionals who need to put risk ahead of growth. We know the volatility in crypto. To overlook this is amateur at best and negligent at worst. Given the values involved, it’s probably the latter.
Filbfilb is also evaluating whether it will negatively affect the BTC price entering 2023. According to the analyst, everything depends on the winter in the EU. “Everyone forgets about the relationship between the EU and the US,” the analyst says. According to the analyst, the US will suffer if the EU gets a hammer. Because imports will be expensive and demand will suffer.
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