According to Ran Neuner and Steven Sidley, who attended the recent Kitco panel, the worst days of the crypto winter are over as the Bitcoin price plunged below $20,000 in June. Experts examine a technical event that happened only 4 times in Bitcoin history, in both directions.
“The cold days of the crypto winter are over”
Neuner, the host of Crypto Banter, the popular crypto-themed podcast, says I’ve found a market bottom. Neuner bases this prediction on recent disasters:
Crypto just experienced one of the biggest liquidations we’ve ever seen. We had the LUNA ecosystem collapse, a $100 billion ecosystem that caused a string of liquidations in the market.
Sidley, Professor at the University of Johannesburg and head of the university’s Blockchain and CryptoVerse Research Group, agreed with Neuner, albeit with a few caveats. “There are still a few things facing us,” warned Sidley, who is also a bestselling author and Director of Bridge Capital Future Advisory. Sidley’s macro comments were quite remarkable:
It is a possible black swan event that China decides to invade Taiwan. If Russia decides to ramp up its aggression to nuclear weapons, that’s another black swan thing… but I agree with Ran that we’re at the end of the crypto winter in most respects.
A black swan event is an unexpected event that has a significant impact on the markets.
This has only happened 3 times on Bitcoin chart
Neuner, who is also the CEO of Onchain Capital, detailed the claim that the market will continue its bullish rally. The expert used Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average for this. The 200-week moving average is the longest measure of Bitcoin’s uptrend. Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen below this metric only three times: in 2015, in 2020, and in 2022. Neuner interprets the data as follows:
Every time Bitcoin’s spot price hit the moving average, it rallied and brought huge returns to investors. There were black events when it fell below the 200-week moving average.
However, Neuner adds that investors should watch the “macro environment” that can affect the BTC price:
As long as the macro environment continues to perform, I think it will be fine. The odds of whether the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points are about 50-50, and I think the market has already priced in these rate hikes. Bottoming out or not, I’d say we’re probably bottoming out in crypto unless there’s another Black Swan event… But I think we’ve had the coldest days of winter.”
Adoption of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies
Asset management firm BlackRock recently announced a partnership with Coinbase to provide Bitcoin access to institutional customers. However, this did not seem to have a significant impact on the Bitcoin price. Neuner’s comments on this were:
In a bear market, the market is not responding to good news and we are very aware that we are in a bear market right now. We thought the BlackRock news would stir the market, and it didn’t.
Sidley said, “The BlackRock announcement was profound. “This firm has $10 trillion in assets under management,” he said. However, BlackRock said that after the announcement, the Bitcoin price did not move due to negative regulatory developments. Sidley interprets this as a “regulatory retreat.” While saying that BlackRock has been influential in Bitcoin adoption, he emphasizes the restrictive effect of regulations:
While BlackRock might say ‘we’re going to get our customers to invest in Bitcoin,’ everyone is now looking the other way, which is regulators trying to control it and slow this thing down.
As Kriptokoin.com, we have quoted BlackRock’s BTC move in this article.
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