Crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay says altcoins, including Bitcoin and SHIB, are maintaining immediate support levels. According to the analyst, this indicates the start of a relief rally in the short term. So, can the bulls start to recover in the short term? The analyst examines the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out. We also prepared Rakesh Upadhyay’s analysis for our readers.
An overview of the crypto market
Crypto markets remained relatively stable on July 4, a holiday for US financial markets due to the weekend and Independence Day. As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of derivatives platform BitMEX, was expecting a ‘mega crypto dump’ around July 4. However, this did not happen.
The drop in Bitcoin’s volatility over the past few days has caused the width of the Bollinger Band to get squeezed. According to popular analyst Matthew Hyland, this signals a possible increase in volatility in the next few days.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance / Source: Coin360
Meanwhile, crypto investors are waiting for clues from the US stock markets and the US dollar. In the week ending July, Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the dollar dropped to 0.77 below zero, a seventeen-month low.
Also, most analysts polled by JP Morgan expect the dollar to end at or below the current price levels of around 105. It is possible that any weakness in the dollar will be beneficial for Bitcoin.
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and ADA analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
The failure of the bears to extend Bitcoin’s decline below $19,637 indicates a lack of sellers at the lower levels. The bulls will now attempt to push the price above the $19,637 resistance.
If this happens, BTC is likely to rise to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,255). It is possible for this level to act as a stiff resistance again. However, if the bulls break this hurdle, BTC is likely to rally to the overhead zone between $22,000 and $23,362.
A break above this zone is likely to open the doors for a rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($25,710). The bulls will have to break through this hurdle to signal a potential trend change.
Conversely, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA, it indicates that sentiment is bearish and traders are selling on rallies. This could increase the likelihood of a retest of the critical support at $17,622. If this support is broken, it is possible to extend the decline to $15,000.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum dropped below the psychological level of $1,000 on June 30. But the bears did not exploit this weakness. This indicates that the bulls are buying on the dips.
The bulls will now try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,192) and gain an edge. If they do, ETH is likely to rally to $1,280 and then to the 50-day SMA ($1,535). Also, this level is likely to act as a strong resistance again. The bulls will need to push the price above $1,700 to signal the start of a fresh upward move.
Conversely, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA, it indicates that sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The bears will then try to push the price below $998 and challenge the critical support at $881.
Binance Coin (BNB)
Buyers have successfully defended the support at $211 since June 29. This points to strong demand at lower levels. The bulls are currently trying to push BNB above the 20-day EMA ($231).
If they are successful, it will suggest that BNB may have bottomed out at $183. Buyers will then try to drive BNB to the 50-day SMA ($266). A break and close above this resistance is likely to signal a potential change in trend.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are selling on every minor rally. The bears will then try to push the price back below $211 and gain the upper hand.
Ripple (XRP)
XRP is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, showing indecision between the bulls and bears. The symmetrical triangle often acts as a continuation pattern. But in some cases it also acts as a reversal pattern.
The price has bounced back from the support line of the triangle. The bulls will try to push XRP above the 20-day EMA ($0.33). If they are successful, it is possible for XRP to rise to the resistance line of the triangle. A break and close above this level is likely to mark the start of a new upward move. XRP could rally to $0.48 later.
Another possibility is for the price to drop sharply from the 20-day EMA and slide below the support line of the triangle. This is likely to pull XRP to the critical support at $0.28. If this level is broken, the next stop could be $0.23.
Cardano (ADA)
Although ADA has been trading near the $0.44 level since June 30, the bears have been unable to push and sustain the price below the support. This indicates that the bulls are buying the lows at $0.44.
Buyers are currently trying to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.48). If they fulfill this task, it is possible for ADA to rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.51). This is an important level to consider. Because a break and close above this could signal that the bears may be losing their grip.
Alternatively, if the price drops from the moving averages, it will indicate that the bears are active at higher levels. Sellers will then try to push ADA below $0.44 and challenge the critical level at $0.40.
SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO and SHIB analysis
Left (LEFT)
SOL has been trading just below the 20-day EMA ($35) for the past few days. But the bears did not exploit this weakness. This indicates a lack of sellers at lower levels.
Buyers will now try to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do so, it is possible for the SOL to rise to the 50-day SMA ($40). A break and close above this resistance is likely to open the doors for a possible rally to the psychological level at $50.
On the other hand, if the price drops below the moving averages, it will indicate that sentiment will remain negative and traders are selling on small rallies. The bears will then try to push the SOL below $30. If they do, it is possible for SOL to drop to $27 and then to $25.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Dogecoin has been holding onto the 20-day EMA ($0.07) for the past few days. This suggests that the bulls are buying the intraday dips as they expect a higher move.
The 20-day EMA has flattened and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint. This indicates that the selling pressure may decrease. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.07) and challenge the immediate resistance at $0.08. If this level is surpassed, DOGE is likely to rise to $0.10.
Conversely, if the price drops from the current level or the 50-day SMA, it will indicate that the bears are vigorously defending the moving averages. Sellers will then attempt to break DOGE below $0.06 and gain the upper hand.
Polkadot (DOT)
The DOT has been trading between $7.30 and $6.36 since June 30. This shows that the bulls are buying lower but the bears are not allowing the price to rise above the range.
While the falling 20-day EMA ($7.52) shows the advantage for sellers, the positive divergence in the RSI indicates that the bearish momentum may weaken. If the buyers price rises above the 20-day EMA, a rise to the 50-day SMA ($8.63) is possible for the DOT.
This bullish view could be invalidated if the price declines and dips below the key support at $6.36. If this happens, DOT is likely to resume its downtrend towards the next support at $5.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO)
Bulls and bears battle for supremacy near the resistance line of the descending channel. LEO fell to the 20-day EMA ($5.65) on July 2. However, the bulls successfully defended the level.
Buyers are again trying to clear the resistance line of the channel. The 20-day EMA and RSI, rising in the positive territory, suggest the path of least resistance is up. If the price stays above $6, it is possible for LEO to gain momentum and rally to $6.50. Above this level, the rally could extend to the pattern target of $6.90.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops below $6 once again, it will indicate that the bears are aggressively defending this level. The bears will then attempt to push the LE below the 20-day EMA. If they do, LEO is likely to slide to the 50-day SMA ($5.30).
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
SHIB is trading close to the psychological level of $0.000010. This indicates that the bulls are attempting to form a higher low near this support.
The 20-day EMA ($0.00010) is stable and the RSI is near the midpoint. This shows that there is a balance between supply and demand. If the price rises above the 50-day SMA ($0.00010), SHIB could rise to $0.000012. Also, this level is likely to act as a tough barrier again. However, if this level is exceeded, SHIB could rise to $0.000014.
Conversely, if the price declines from the moving averages, the bears will attempt to push SHIB below $0.000009. If successful, SHIB could retest the critical support at $0.000007.
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