The opening data for ARK’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report contains some gems. It also contains a simple compilation of facts that paint a clear picture of the Bitcoin market as it currently stands.
A record on the Bitcoin chart: nine red candles in a row!
ARK’s analysts, whose predictions we have included in the news of Kriptokoin.com, look at the data beyond the Fear and Greed index and analyze the situation of the Bitcoin market as follows:
Bitcoin May 17% It fell 0.2% from $38,480 to $31,835. Let’s be honest, this looks like the start of a bear market. And the Terra/Luna crash seems to be the catalyst thing. However, subsequent data will show that we may not be together after all.
According to analysts, Bitcoin closed the month with 17.2% decline, recording the ninth consecutive negative weekly drop for the first time in its history, revealing a possible oversold situation. Analysts state that nine red candles in a row is a new record and make the following assessment:
No matter how you dress, this is a terrible reality. Bitcoin has dropped 57% since hitting an all-time high in November 2021. For perspective, the average top-to-bottom drop in previous bear markets stands at 76%.
Does this mean things can get worse? Or does it mean that we are not close to bear market levels? It definitely feels like a bear market, but statistics are statistics.
06/04/2022 BTC price chart on Exmo | Source: TradingView “Bitcoin network holds strong”
Despite continued selling, Bitcoin has not fallen below any major trendlines, according to analysts. It is trading above the on-chain cost base of ~$24,000 and its 200-week moving average of ~$22,000.
Analysts say the Bitcoin network has sucked the big sell of Terra/Luna and the aftermarket sell-off like a champ. According to analysts, the worst seems to be over and Bitcoin “did not fall below any major trendlines”. Analysts share the following assessment:
About 66% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in more than a year. Despite the massive market movement, Bitcoiners continue to HODLing as if it was the only chance of economic freedom they will ever see in their lifetime. Because it probably is. Short-term holder positions fell -35% below breakeven prices, on average.
If Bitcoiners are HODLing, who is selling all these cheap BTC? The answer, according to analysts, is short-term holders, and they’re not even close to breaking.
ARK: The market is looking for a way to launch itself fast
Analysts share the following information: First of all, Bitcoin’s open interest in the futures market is about 450,000 BTC reached an all-time high. Also, the perpetual contract basis typically points to the market direction. It is currently trading with a bullish cut to spot.
This is crucial, given the high open interest rate, as sustained futures discounting points to a potential upward trajectory in BTC’s next big price action.
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