The leading crypto Bitcoin is struggling above $ 16 thousand as it tries to overcome the effects of the FTX collapse. Analysts are divided on the outcome of this fight. Some say the bottom has been seen, others say not yet. We have compiled analysts’ BTC predictions for our readers.
What does Bitcoin fractal analysis show?
Most cryptos are slowly recovering from the shock caused by the FTX collapse. Bitcoin (BTC) is no exception. His supporters, convinced by the positive price indicators, refuse to stop believing in his bullish future. Indeed, experts at crypto analytics firm TradingShot comment:
We observed an interesting fractal analysis in different time periods. If Bitcoin stays at last week’s low, it indicates that a strong rally in 2023 is possible.
Bitcoin fractal analysis / Source: TradingShotTo be specific, the level Bitcoin must hold above $16,628 for said rally to be possible. If that happens, there is a potential upside to $95,000 by 2024, according to fractal analysis.
What do other indicators suggest for Bitcoin?
Another positive technical analysis (TA) indicator belongs to prominent Bitcoin analyst and PlanB. According to the analyst, the 200-week moving average (MA) remains positive for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin 200-week moving average / Source: PlanBThe analyst’s chart shows that Bitcoin price remains above the 200-week MA. In his statement to the tweet, he also emphasizes:
I don’t care about crypto. BTC will survive. BTC already survived MtGox default, Bitstamp hack, Bitfinex hack, Quadrigacx explosion. BTC is designed to work without third parties. FTX collapse will not kill Bitcoin, it will make BTC stronger.
I don't care about crypto, bitcoin will survive. Bitcoin already survived MtGox default, Bitstamp hack, Bitfinex hack, Quadrigacx blowup. Bitcoin is designed to run without third parties. FTX default will not kill bitcoin, it will make BTC stronger: not your keys not your coins!
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 13, 2022
More optimistic prospects for crypto
At the same time, another crypto analyst, Mustache, states in a chart that Bitcoin is close to touching the trendline that it has ‘held for 5.5 years already’.
Bitcoin price trendline / Source: MustacheRobert Kiyosaki, author of the personal finance book ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ also expresses his optimism. Accordingly, he says he is “not worried” about Bitcoin price movements.
Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is confident that Bitcoin will survive the bear market. However, he warns that it will take a very long time for the asset to realize its full potential.
Are bad signs piling up against Bitcoin?
On the other hand, analyst ghodusifar at CryptoQuant says that despite the relative gains in US stocks, Bitcoin has lost a crucial level of support. So not everything is smiling for BTC. The analyst makes the following statement:
So far, there is no record of Bitcoin returning below its previous cycle’s ATH. It is possible that this indicates weakness in the crypto market and further price drops in the near future.
BTC vs stock / Source: ghoddusifar/CryptoQuant
“The worst of the bear market is long over”
Crypto analyst nicknamed Inmortal says that the worst of the BTC and crypto bear market is long past. In this direction, he notes that it offers gold opportunities to long-term bulls. According to the analyst, a new market cycle is taking shape when the pendulum is furthest from the centre. Also, here the gravitational force makes it accelerate to swing to the other side. The analyst states that the markets are now at a point where the pendulum swings to the other end. According to Inmortal, this shows that sales of more than a year are close to extinction.
The analyst believes that on November 10, exactly one year after Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $69,000, the crypto markets are at their furthest from the centre. Meanwhile, on November 10, BTC registered a fresh bear market low of $15,674. The analyst also shares a chart showing that Bitcoin is trending bullish with its relative strength index (RSI) on the three-day chart.
Source: Inmortal / TwitterThe data shows that sellers are losing momentum and buyers are starting to control the market. That is why the analyst closely watches bullish divergences during a bear trend. Inmortal also suggests that Bitcoin’s drop below $16,000 could be just a diversion. Therefore, he notes that BTC will eventually regain support around $18,000.
Source: Inmortal / Twitter“Bitcoin is near the end of bear cycle”
The analyst, nicknamed Rekt Capital, says that the burst of FTX will signal the beginning of the end of the BTC bear market. The analyst notes that historically, the collapse of a crypto exchange indicates that it is near the end of the Bitcoin bear cycle. In this regard, he makes the following statement:
In previous BTC cycles it was BitMEX, previously it was Mt Gox. FTX now. This is a model. Stock market contagion has become a historical trend that occurs near the absolute bottom of the BTC bear market. If you survive capitulation, you thrive in a bull market.
The analyst is also counting the days before the next BTC halving. According to Rekt, historical data also shows that BTC is close to bottoming out. In terms of the magnitude of the current cycle’s decline, Rekt highlights that BTC is close to the typical 80% bear market correction. For this, he evaluates:
Technically, an -80% BTC bear market correction was supposed to happen. It could be argued that the catalysts for the Ukraine-Russia war, LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, FTX, and others, are what facilitate this current -78% return. Positive catalysts will also magically appear at the bottom of BTC. If BTC turns the recently broken ~17,400 monthly support into new resistance, it may even reject the next close monthly support of ~$13,900. If that happens, BTC will retrace -80% from $69,000.
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