Bitcoin (BTC) price took a positive turn on April 14 following Wednesday’s recovery. The BTC/USD pair retraced the $40,000 support and started trading above $41,000 on Thursday, according to TradingView data. Crypto Ed, Cred, TechDev and well-known analyst take a look at the latest situation of Bitcoin, which is trading above $ 40 thousand to determine the next levels.
2 bullish scenarios for Bitcoin after the breakout
A top crypto analyst speculates two possible scenarios where bulls could regain control of Bitcoin (BTC) after a failed break above $44,000. In a recent strategy session, the crypto analyst nicknamed Cred says that momentum is on the bears’ side after Bitcoin failed to sustain its rise despite a “public buying frenzy”. But Cred adds that all is not lost for the bulls, as BTC says it is fast approaching a key support level that has kept Bitcoin afloat for most of 2022:
So what would be the uptrend? Two things: one is either reaching support ($36,000) and/or the lower range where the expected value of being long rises and the risk-reward of long setups becomes more identifiable and attractive. That would make sense.
In another scenario, Cred says if the bulls manage to retrace $44,000 and turn it into support, they can assert their dominance:
Alternatively, if this downtrend starts correcting itself , so if a back rally in the high ($44,000) range is not rejected and actually accepted, that would be positive as well. According to
Cred, a move above the $44,000 resistance could push Bitcoin above $50,000. Here’s how the analyst explains:
If the market is showing some strength between $44,000 and $46,000 and where does that move stop – whether it’s in the mid range, low range, maybe zero – anyway… I’m considering trading above $44,000. . Achieving this price action is lower and more likely to continue towards the previous $52,000 or whatever targets.
Does Bitcoin follow the stock market model of the early 90s?
Crypto analysts theorize that the latest Bitcoin (BTC) correction could be part of a longer-term pattern that preceded the massive price surge. In a recent tweet, TechDev shows its 383,000 Twitter followers a picture showing striking similarities between the 1991 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Bitcoin today. Both charts show prices rising, then falling below the 200-day moving average, followed by an unsuccessful attempt to break above the 100-day moving average:
Interesting structure takes 8 months. Dow Jones ’91 vs Bitcoin ’21-22.
After an unsuccessful attempt to break above the 100-day moving average, the Dow Jones made a surprise rebound and burst the 200-day moving average in early 1991 and continued to gain value for most of the year. . According to TechDev, the second part of the pattern has yet to happen for BTC, which could mean imminent Bitcoin rallies.
The analyst also points out that both the BTC and DJI chart appear to emulate a pattern known as the Emotion Cycle, which was originally popularized by stock market technician Justin Mamis in his book The Nature of Risk. TechDev is retweeting a chart first shared by analyst Rickus that compares BTC’s recent price action to the Sentiment Cycle.
Supporting the bullish thesis, TechDev also looks at a Bitcoin chart with 3-week candles and a swirl cross indicator that defines trend reversals. Commenting on the chart, the analyst says that BTC is currently reflecting price action in late 2020, just before Bitcoin began a half-year-long rally:
So far this 3-week BTC candle looks like the one following the last bullish Vortex cross.
Kevin Svenson: Altcoins ready to disappear as Bitcoin maintains critical support
Another widely followed crypto analyst, Bitcoin (BTC)’s fundamental It warns investors that altcoins are close to being gutted as they approach falling below support levels. Kevin Svenson tells his 101,000 Twitter followers that while Bitcoin and Ethereum face downside risk, altcoins continue to bear the brunt of further market corrections:
Bitcoin shows downside risk. I’m not worried about BTC or ETH. I’ll keep these in an ongoing bear trend scenario and stack more. But altcoins would be wiped out in a bear trend. Absolutely destroyed. Be careful.
Analyst, BTC’s 600-days since early 2020 says it has not closed a single daily candle below its simple moving average (SMA) and is currently acting as critical support, and the price has bounced more than a dozen times over the past 2 years:
BTC below 600-day simple moving average since the COVID-19 crash the one-day candle did not close. The 600-day simple moving average has also been the main support of this range since mid-January. The 600-day simple moving average is currently $39,250.
Svenson also notes that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 (SPX) are somewhat positively correlated with the US dollar index (DXY), which pegs the USD against a basket of other fiat currencies. states that he has He points out that as DXY climbs up, the stock market may face further downside pressure, potentially threatening to take Bitcoin with it:
SPX seems to be once again entering an inverse correlation with the US dollar index. starting. Contrary to what most people think, BTC and SPX have been positively correlated (to the dollar) to some extent since early 2021.
Macro Guru Raoul Pal explains the catalysts that will fuel new rallies
Marco guru and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal said crypto markets are already seeing their lows and He says the upcoming catalysts could fuel the next industry-wide rally. Pal said in a new interview that many different developments have filled the crypto space with negative emotions, but the markets remain resilient. According to the analyst, stamina could be a sign that the bottom is in. Here are the reasons why:
Balance of probabilities, we hit the lowest last year, we retested the lowest this year and I think we started a war, 8.5% inflation, FED raising interest rates on all crypto, China we lifted the ban, we threw a lot and we did not make a new bottom. Usually, this is usually a sign that his market has bottomed out.
Raoul Pal, whose analysis we share as Cryptokoin.com, says that a recession could be the spark that triggers the next big bull run in crypto:
Now what are the upside catalysts? We’re looking at it. The increased catalyst will be if economic growth begins to slow. Then we can probably see long-term assets tend to perform better in low-growth environments, and crypto tends to do very well in this type of environment, as does Cathie Wood’s ARKK, such long-term assets. That’s what we’re looking for as the spark, a change in structure so people are less afraid of inflation and more afraid of growth.
According to Pal, the previous four-year cycle driven by Bitcoin’s halvings that best describe the overall trends of the crypto market is now over. The analyst has this to say about it:
I think the 4-year cycles are over because the market is much larger than before and Bitcoin is not that dominant, so on the margin, the four-year cycle will have an impact, but the impact is not that big. For example, the ETH 2.0 event will create a different potential dynamic, so I think the cycles have changed and I think over time these very volatile trends have become less volatile and we saw that in the early days of Amazon… it’s the same with crypto now, 300 million people are using it, that’s it. So what’s happening is volatility goes down.
Analysts rank targets below $40,000
In his recent tweets, popular crypto analyst Scott Melker tried to predict Bitcoin’s next levels:
Below that, whale take-off sites are a security site with Whalemap’s on-chain tracking resource mentioned on April 12. can act as a network. Meanwhile, popular trader Crypto Ed watches $38,600 as a short-term bounce area, underscoring the mixed consensus on how low Bitcoin could go.
Former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes expects the leading cryptocurrency to trade at $30,000 in June. Meanwhile, analyst Kevin Svenson sees the 600-day simple moving average (SMA) on longer timeframes as a key support line being retested in a major event, telling his recent analysis:
BTC is recovering from the COVID-19 crash. It has not closed a daily candle below 600d/SMA since. 600d/SMA has also been the main support for this series since mid-January. The 600d/SMA is currently at $39,250.
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