Bitcoin (BTC) is far from turning everyone into a bull. Several analysts point to the classic bull market structures currently prevailing on BTC price charts. However, some are skeptical.
Is it too early for a Bitcoin rally?
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin circled around $23,500 on Feb. 4, as the bulls refused to let go of support in after-hours trading as well. Data from TradingView shows that BTC has maintained a tight range since the February 3 Wall Street opening. Macroeconomic data from the United States provided moderate volatility. However, there was no general trend change as traders took their time towards the weekend.
However, opinions on the long-term outlook are mixed. Some argue that there is little reason to be confident that Bitcoin’s rally will continue. Popular trader Crypto Tony said in one episode of his tweet series, “We are already seeing $50,000 predictions in Bitcoin. However, we have not yet completed the market structure change, which includes a higher high and a higher low,” he summarizes.
Bitcoin price evokes memories of 2020
All the better is trader Credible Crypto, who doubled down on a theory comparing current BTC price action to late 2020 price action, just after Bitcoin broke its all-time high in 2017. The analyst shares the following comment:
Price action has evolved nicely from our lows, mimicking the bottom formation before our last push of $10k – $60k+. Current consolidation (circled in green) also looks the same as PA from this impulse. BTC could continue to rise while most people wait for a pullback.
BTC benchmark charts / Source: Credible Crypto / TwitterOthers are concerned about a reversal in the fate of the US dollar, which, if sustained, could affect all risk assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is ‘ringing the alarm bells’ for popular analyst Bluntz, who dedicates a section to stablecoins. Macro investor David Brady comments on the dollar’s decline from two-year highs in the third quarter of 2022:
After such a long and deep sale, do we think DXY is already on the rise? I don’t think. There are a lot of shorts for squeeze yet.
US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day candlestick chart / Source: TradingViewRSI poised for ‘continuation of bullish’
Meanwhile, trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who focuses on monthly timeframes, is examining a potential clue that Bitcoin could drop before it hits higher. The clue is the relative strength index (RSI), which bounced off all-time lows in January and regained a key support level.
While acknowledging that historically, Bitcoin markets have not ‘really seen a double bottom’ in the RSI, he argues that there is still a chance for a higher bottom to come later. In a YouTube video posted on Feb. 3, he said, “Now it’s just necessary to confirm and hold these levels consistently and consistently. That’s what we really want to see for continued ascension,” he says.
Bitcoin relative strength index (RSI) explanatory chart / Source: Rekt CapitalA Twitter poll by Rekt Capital similarly provided narrow consensus that a drop for BTC should occur.
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