The global crypto market cap fell to $839 billion, down from the previous day. One analyst says the Bitcoin price will reach a new low below $15,000 by the first quarter of 2023, when it can find a longer-term bottom. Meanwhile, DeFi total locked value is currently close to an all-time low in two years. According to analysts, a recovery from here could be a sign of a recovery from the bear market.
From Wen Lambo to Wen Bull market?
Wen Lambo is a term used to indicate when someone will get rich by selling their crypto holdings. Now, the crypto market cap is trading 73% below its ATH. That’s why analysts are trying to find signs of a reversal. Crypto analyst bOnchain highlights in a recent analysis that the bull market will start when the market drops to the delta limit. The analyst predicts that historically, the delta cap is the market cap support for Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s market cap has not yet reached the delta limit.
Bitcoin Delta Cap | Source: CryptoQuantIT Tech, another CryptoQuant analyst, is looking at Unspent Transaction Output (UTXOs). According to these data, he says that BTC is nearing the end of the cycle. Specifically, UTXOs older than six months receive almost 90% of the realized cap. In the sales of previous cycles in September 2015 and April 2019, this indicator reached over 70%. Then, the indicator started to drop.
Bitcoin UTXOs | Source: CryptoQuantIn the past, Bitcoin price has slowly recovered as the value for each group started to drop. The youngest group has already returned. If other bands start to turn as well, it could mean price is close.
Predicting bitcoin and altcoin bull run
Huobi founder Du Jun says in a recent interview that a new crypto bull run could only happen after the next halving. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin halving event will take place in 2024. The last halving took place in May 2020. Then in 2021, Bitcoin hit its all-time high above $68,000. Similarly, when a BTC halving event took place in 2016, BTC prices hit another record high the following year.
Another analyst, nicknamed SmartContracter, says the recent Bitcoin price surge is a corrective recovery. However, according to the analyst, BTC will make a new bottom below $15,000 by the first quarter of 2023, where it will find a longer-term bottom.
BTC price | Source: SmartContracterFinally, the recovery of DeFi total locked value, which is currently close to an all-time low in two years, could signal a recovery from the bear market, according to analysts.
DeFi total locked value | Source: DeflationThe total value locked in is down 77% from its all-time high in November 2021. Currently, this value is at the level of 41.74 billion dollars. According to analysts, if a bull run starts, institutional flows in the DeFi space will increase. Thus, it will signal the beginning of a bull market.
33030
